2018 Oscars Globes

Of course, as we always must do when discussing the Globes, there are caveats to consider when analyzing what the winners and losers mean to awards season as a whole (and when we say “awards season as a whole,” understand that to mean “The Oscars”). The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a weird, insular group of people who often make decisions based on the quality of the parties thrown for them and the quality of the stars starring in them. This is what leads to The Tourist getting multiple nominations back in 2010, and the somewhat improbable situation of All the Money in the World receiving three nominations (including Best Director!) when there was no possible way the film could have actually been finished when it was screened for the HFPA. And as always, the choice to split between “Drama” and “Comedy/Musical” further muddies the waters coming out of the Globes, as we have two movies and six actors/actresses that have received awards.

Now, with all that being said, what do we know moving forward?

Well, certainly a few things. It’s often easy to over-correct for this, but so often these award granting bodies want their winners to say something. That can take various forms, whether it’s the Lifetime Achievement style Oscars given to actors or directors (see also: Scorsese for The Departed, Jack Lemmon for Save the Tiger, Morricone for The Hateful Eight, etc etc, which is why you just might be able to bank on Roger Deakins finally winning for Blade Runner 2049), the desire to pat themselves on the back for Hollywood being such an awesome force in the world (The Artist, Argo, and to a lesser extent, La La Land), or the need to say something about the state of the world with their winners, as you could argue with the victory of Moonlight in the year following the Oscars So White controversy.

That last one, that’s the one we need to pay attention to this year. The Globes made that pretty clear.

The focus on the Golden Globes this year was undoubtedly on women in Hollywood, stemming from the impossible to ignore #metoo movement that shook the industry in the wake of Harvey Weinstein finally paying the price for decades of abusive power over women, so much of which seemed to be tied into Weinstein’s ability to campaign for, and win, major awards like Oscars and Golden Globes. You can see in the films and TV shows that won big, all of them have a female-fronted perspective, whether it’s The Handmaid's Tale and Big Little Lies on the TV side, or Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri on the film side. Three Bilbboards was the biggest winner of the night, grabbing four total awards for Sam Rockwell, McDonagh’s script, Frances McDormand and Best Drama (the more prestigious of the Globes' split categories, giving it the most momentum out of the gate as we rumble through the guild awards on the way to the Academy closing the season on March 4.

And looking at some of the previously announced guild nominations, the path forward for Three Billboards seems to be coalescing. It’s got a potential big night coming at the SAG awards, with McDormand expected to continue her romp through the season toward almost certain Oscar gold. There is potential for Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson to split the vote, which could lead to early favorite Willem Dafoe to sneak the prize for his work in The Florida Project, but his star seems to be fading perhaps due to the comparatively early release date for that film being swept away by the deluge of November/December releases that are fresher in the minds of voters. It’s easy to see Three Billboards taking 3 major awards from the SAGs, perhaps the night after winning at the PGAs to cement its momentum leading up to the final stretch.

And Three Billboards does have timeliness on its side, with the story of a woman seeking retribution for the unsolved rape and murder of her daughter resonating well with the second half of 2017’s strikes at the long-entrenched patriarchy. It’s arguably a better fit in that vein than some of the other female-focused contenders; Lady Bird certainly has its own momentum now, and it’s entirely possible Natalie Portman will have successfully shamed the Academy (and possibly the DGA) into giving Greta Gerwig a nomination for Best Director, but that film doesn’t play the abuse card the way Three Billboards does. The Shape of Water is perhaps a little closer, but it too isn’t as directly tied into the very specific zeitgeist on display at the Golden Globes in the same way. Whether this translates to a much larger and more diverse voting body is what remains to be seen.

That leaves some of the other social justice/hot button issue films perhaps on the outside looking in. In this case, I’m speaking of The Post and Get Out, two films that have each been labeled as important pieces of art in the Trump era. Get Out may have been made before Trump was inaugurated (or even elected, for that matter), but it perfectly encapsulates the raging fire of race relations in the modern day that has been stoked by Trump’s campaign and further embracing of all manner of authoritarian, white supremacist actions since taking office. Granted, Get Out is more concerned with a very specific sort of white liberal racism than the more traditional KKK style, one predicated on hiding prejudices behind an exterior of hollow inclusivity, but its racial sentiments feel undeniably prescient considering how the rest of 2017 ended up playing out. Still, Get Out is definitely a rogue presence in the awards field, a low budget genre movie (horror genre, no less, which hasn’t sniffed awards consideration in any real way since The Silence of the Lambs in 1991 unless you want to count Natalie Portman’s win for Black Swan) released in February by Blumhouse pictures by a first-time director. Get Out receiving a Best Picture nomination at all would be a monumental moment. But we’re living in a world where Moonlight could unseat La La Land for the big prize, so anything seems a lot more possible than it used to.